Global Growth


Sustained progress requires global policy and economic integration and boosting entrepreneurship

We believe that sustained global growth will be driven by structural reforms and evolving governments worldwide to more agile teams focused on implementing the right fiscal and monetary policies and setting the right regulation to sustain growth and employment. This major change will be successful only through closer collaboration between the leaders of all countries, which is necessary to catalyse a greater economic integration and cooperation both at the regional level (e.g. European Union) cross region via multi-lateral trade agreements and globally international level via the G20, B20, WTO.

Through laying a fertile ground of efficient policies and coordinated trade and regulatory systems, the solution for a thriving global economy and social progress will come from enabling a bottom-up innovation and entrepreneurship driven by technological innovation and providing value for unmet needs of local and global markets.

As summarised by Christine Lagarde in her 2014 Richard Dimbleby Lecture “A New Multilateralism for the 21st Century”, “one of the majorfuture megatrends of our time is the shift in global power from west to east, and from north to south—from a few to a handful, to a myriad. This reality means that emerging countries offer huge opportunities for business, but they come with a higher risk due to a less favourable regulations, for e.g. property rights, and the challenge of adapting to the local culture and economic and cultural structures. However, we see an acceleration of the progress made by emerging countries to close the skills, infrastructure and governance gap.

The Vicendi Consulting team if fully committed and very active in helping deliver growth opportunities and collaborations across borders while contributing to the transfer of management expertise and technology to developing countries, particularly in North Africa, Middle East, and Sub-saharian Africa.

 


Global economic outlook and policy challenges for 2014

Lagarde,_Christine_official_portrait_2011International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks about the global economic outlook and policy challenges for 2014.

Ms Lagarde, speaking at the National Press Club in Washington, urged policy makers in advanced economies to fight threats of deflation that would threaten a global recovery she called “feeble.” (Source: Bloomberg).

Watch the full video hear: Lagarde Warns Officials to Fight Deflation in 2014

IMF will announce its 2014 outlook on January 21st.

  • Growth is directionally positive but at low gears.
  • Rising risks of deflation.
  • If inflation is the genie then certainly deflation the ogre that must be fought decisively.
  • During the crisis, emerging and low income countries contributed with 3/4th of global growth.
  • A growing number of emerging markets are slowing down.
  • Risks from volatility in financial services – There could still be rough waters.
  • The benefit of growth are being enjoyed by far few people – Too much of the growth is enjoyed 95% of income growth increase went to the top 1%. This is not a recipe for stability and not a recipe for sustainability.

 “The global growth is still too low, too fragile and too uneven. Not enough to create the 200 million jobs needed.”

 

Policy Recommendations:

Policy makers need to stay focused on the policies that are needed for sustainable and inclusive growth as well as rewarding jobs.

We so far have avoided the worst case scenario and all policy makers have made part of the necessary effort.

However, as Edward R. Murrow said, “Difficulty is the excuse that history never accepts.”

“The top priority is to fortify the feeble economic recovery and make it sustainable.”

 

Advanced economies:

Central banks should not undo the uncongenial policies they deployed until the recovery is robust.

All countries need to take the opportunities to continue delivering the right reforms reform.

US:
  • Growth picking up driven by the private sector.
  • Loosening of the fiscal corset as a result of the recent budget deal.
  • Need to return to a normal process including removing the threat of the debt ceiling.
Europe:
  • Growth is uneven.
  • Monetary policy can help. ECB can be more in a targeted way. To facilitate borrowing especially to reduce the large fragmentation.
  • Enhance competitiveness.
Japan:
  • Initial boost by Abbey was good but becoming weak.
  • The challenge is to agree on medium term fiscal adjustments and to the economic and social reform needed. Deregulating the product and service market. And making sure that women can access the job market.

Emerging Markets:

The challenge is to navigate any bumpiness and stay robust.

  • Strengthen financial regulation.
  • Manage well risk of bubbles.
  • Continue with structural reforms.

Low Income Countries:

  • Rebuild buffers lost in the crisis.
  • Raise revenues.
  • Keep on spending selectively and effectively on important social projects.

 

Issues that cut across all countries:

These have no borders that require Common resolve and common solutions to common problems.

  1. Legacy of public and private debt
  2. Fiscal and current accounts consolidation
  3. Reforms to financial system
  4. Rising inequality. Rising income goes to 1% of the population

“Only by addressing these issues we can ensure future prosperity and meet the aspiration of young people and global populations for jobs, for equality, and for dignity.”

To continue IMF’s support to global economic stability we need cooperation and global solidarity.